China is the largest urea producer worldwide with some 70 mln mtpa (million metric tons per year) or 35% of the worldwide urea production. During the last five years a major feedstock transition from natural gas to coal has been realized in China leading to numerous new ammonia/urea complexes (total 28,7 mln mtpa urea) and a very large export stream of urea pushing down the urea prices worldwide.
To predict future urea prices one needs a deep understanding what is happening in China ...
and what will be the impact of the new policies as presented by the Chinese government as their 13th five-year plan (2016-2020 end of October 2015). New style professional farming, boosting capacities of cultivated land, less pollution and more efficient water usage all are part of this new five-year plan. ChemChina’s takeover of Syngenta is already one step in the implementation of this plan.
And what will be the impact in the ammonia and urea industry ?